Bye Bye BlackBerry. How Long Will Apple Last?

Consider some of the pessimistic predictions that preceded Apple???s entry into the smartphone business:

  • In December 2006, Palm CEO Ed Colligan summarily dismissed the idea that a traditional personal computing company could compete in the smartphone business. ???We???ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,??? he said. ???PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They???re not going to just walk in.???
  • In January 2007, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer laughed off the prospect of an expensive smartphone without a keyboard having a chance in the marketplace as follows: ???Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan? I said that???s the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn???t appeal to business customers because it doesn???t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good e-mail machine.???
  • In March 2007, computing industry pundit John C. Dvorak argued that ???Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone??? since ???There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive.??? Dvorak believed the mobile handset business was already locked up by the era???s major players. ???This is not an emerging business. In fact it???s gone so far that it???s in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc.???

This serves as a classic example of those with a static snapshot mentality disregarding the potential for new entry and technological disruption.

Hindsight perhaps, but there was huge suppressed customer satisfaction demand, functionality of networks and handsets was exploding (still is), replacement cycles were short, subsidy was available, proprietary systems were past their use by, open source credibility was high. Excellent entr??es for Apple customer marketing and Android open model with Google behind it.

How Apple won the West (and lost the world) ??? The Register

Thom Holwerda is thus largely correct in asserting that “the iPhone’s impact on the world is negligible”, whatever its impact on markets for the rich. This isn’t to disparage what Apple has done, but to put it in context, and to serve as a reminder of just how revolutionary Android promises to be for the world.

Researcher???s Video Shows Secret Software on Millions of Phones Logging Everything | Threat Level | Wired.com

The video shows the software logging Eckhart???s online search of ???hello world.??? That???s despite Eckhart using the HTTPS version of Google which is supposed to hide searches from those who would want to spy by intercepting the traffic between a user and Google.

Cringe as the video shows the software logging each number as Eckhart fingers the dialer.

???Every button you press in the dialer before you call,??? he says on the video, ???it already gets sent off to the IQ application.???

Way overboard.

A Facebook Smartphone ??? Why?

At the end of last week???s Monday Note, I briefly wondered about the rumored Amazon smartphone. Would it follow the Kindle Fire strategy: Pick Android???s lock and sell the device at or below cost in order to lubricate the wheels of Amazon???s e-commerce of tangible and intangible things?

This week, we have the rebirth of another story: the Facebook phone. All Things D, the Wall Street Journal???s site dedicated to??? All Things Digital, aired a series of posts focused on Facebook???s hypothetical jump into the smartphone fray. Given the site???s reputation for reliable sources and real writing, this must be more than idle speculation floated for pageviews.

But what???s going on? Why would Facebook ??? or Amazon ??? create its own smartphone?

Yet another service, yet another device. Used to be the goal was to own the consumer, now the consumer believes they own you…

Gartner: Android Now Over 50 Percent Of Smartphone Sales, The Rest Decline

According to figures out today from Gartner, more than 50 percent of all smartphones bought by consumers in Q3 were built on the Android OS. That growth has been at all other platforms??? expense: the figures indicate that every other smartphone platform has declined in marketshare over a year ago.