Femtocells: Subject to Net Neutrality Regulations?


Net Neutrality imho is the deleterious treatment of competitive traffic, not the beneficial treatment of your own. As long as competitors can make the same deal, or continue to operate, Net Neutrality isn’t violated.

And how much traffic does cellular involve, well, with tethering and femtocells, I guess you can obtain unlimited?

Dean Bubley’s 2013 Telecom Industry Anti-Forecasts

My 2013 Telecom Industry Anti-Forecasts

So without further ado, these are Disruptive Analysis’ Top 10 Telecoms Anti-Forecasts for the coming year…

1) RCSe / RCS5 / Joyn won’t gain meaningful user traction

2) NFC payments will continue to struggle.

3) Broad adoption of VoLTE won’t occur in 2013

4) WebRTC won’t take over the world in 2013

5) Nokia won’t be acquired

6) LTE won’t replace fixed broadband.

7) OTT traffic on broadband won’t be “monetised”

8) Handset purchase patterns won’t change that much

9) WiFi won’t be “seamless” or tightly coupled to mobile network cores

10) No operator will make a bold acquisition of a major Internet player


A couple of other, shorter, extra anti-forecasts for 2013:

– Cellular M2M connections will start to lose out to WiFi, Zigbee, private radio and others for connections to devices that don’t actually move about
– LTE roaming will be widely ignored because of bill-shock risk, spectrum mismatch in devices and issues around supporting voice
– Nobody normal will be using mobile phones to unlock doors of homes, cars or hotels instead of keys or cards
– Mobile video-calling/sharing will remain almost irrelevant, and generate way more PR puff than it deserves. Some other embedded-video apps might make more sense, though.
– Augmented Reality is mostly touted by people with a limited grip on non-augmented reality. It won’t be meaningfully important in 2013, if ever.
– Everyone will hate the new venue for MWC13. I’m not going – if I fancied a week on an industrial park next to IKEA, I’d go to Neasden as it’s closer.
The Internet will happily go about its merry monoservice business, despite the apocalyptic predictions of my colleague Martin Geddes. I won’t be waking from nightmares shouting “Non-stationarity!!!
– Outside of the Galaxe Note-style “phablet”, few tablets will have 3G/4G modems embedded, and even fewer will have them regularly used
– We won’t see much change in Internet Governance, despite lots of noise and thunder from those mostly-thwarted at the ITU WCIT conference
– White-space technology won’t evolve as far, as fast or as disruptively as many people hope
– We probably won’t see Software-Defined Networking (SDN) proceed as fast as many hope, but that’s an area for me to research a bit more fully before nailing down that conclusion

Have a Happy New Year. Be Disruptive…..



T-Mobile CEO confirms the iPhone and the death of phone subsidies

T-Mobile is eliminating all device subsidies in 2013, requiring new customers to pay full price for their phones up front, buy it on installment or bring their own unlocked devices, Legere said speaking at corporate parent Deutsche Telekom’s Capital Markets Day in Bonn.

T-Mobile will shift entirely to its unsubsidized Value Plans, which offer customers far cheaper rates for voice and particular data. Traditionally carriers factor subsidies into their normal contracts rates – basically you’re paying a mortgage on your phone. With the Value program, T-Mobile is keeping the contract, but passing what it saves on subsidies back to consumer.

Sky has never bought you a TV set. The subsidy has always been a burden, justifying lock-in contract periods. The era of opportunistic cellco choice on the fly for best bargain data bundles gets closer.

Vodafone-TelstraClear deal cleared

Commerce Commission chairman Dr Mark Berry said in a statement, “In reaching its decision, the Commission considered that the merged entity would continue to face competition from Telecom, as well as Orcon, Slingshot and other smaller businesses in providing fixed line voice and broadband services to residential and small business customers”.

“The Commission did not find any significant business overlap between Vodafone and TelstraClear in the provision of either mobile phone services or fixed line services to large businesses.

The path to approval was cleared by Vodafone not seeking to acquire all of TelstraClear’s spectrum, which falls in the 4G-friendly 1800MHz and 2100MHz bands.

Ah, so not all spectrum obtained in the deal.

More analysts weigh in on 4G claim

Budde said he was in favour of charging a lower price for radio spectrum and imposing obligations on buyers to better serve rural communities, perhaps by creating the telecommunications’ equivalent of an “open commons”.

Telecommunications Users Association chief executive Paul Brislen said he would be happy to see the digital dividend spectrum sold at a discount if that ensured the rollout of 4G in rural areas was on a par with that in cities and towns. However, an industry source queried whether attaching conditions to the spectrum sale would be the most efficient way of supporting such a policy.

Time for Government to stop exploiting our shared spectrum resource as a form of indirect taxation which leads to poor competitive outcomes and fat margins to the winners who take all.

Mobile Carriers Warn of ???Spectrum Crisis??? – Others See Hyperbole

The reason spectrum is treated as though it were finite is because it is still divided by frequencies — an outdated understanding of how radio technology works, he said. “I hate to even use the word ‘spectrum,’ ” he said. “It’s a 1920s understanding of how radio communications work.

Why, then, wouldn’t carriers want to use these newer technologies that cause frequencies to not interfere? Because licensing spectrum is a zero-sum game. When a company gets the license for a band of radio waves, it has the exclusive rights to use it. Once a company owns it, competitors can’t have it.

Mr. Reed said the carriers haven’t advocated for the newer technologies because they want to retain their monopolies.


Study Shoots Holes In AT&T’s Reasons for Throttling

In a blog post, Validas concludes that throttling isn’t being put in place to curb greedy data hogs, but rather to migrate users of traditional unlimited plans to tiered plans. These plans are far easier for AT&T to manage and don’t pose threats to its network.

Another data point in the constellation confirming that it’s greed, not consumer protection, that underpins this activity.

AT&T loses whopping $6.7B on pensions, T-Mobile breakup

With the postpaid business slowing down, AT&T has turned its eye to the connected devices business, connecting everything from picture frames to dog collars with a cellular signal. It’s a relatively new area that AT&T has been particularly aggressive in pursuing, which has resulted in lower average revenue per user, but higher profits. AT&T added more than 1 million connected devices in the period.

The new rivers of gold, billions of low cost connected devices, low churn, low price, low interest in competition, low bandwidth, low cost of sales, & high margin.