Those who own the future are going to be the ones who create it. It???s all up for grabs. Web monopolies are not as sticky as the monopolies of old.
Thinking about this more today, I’ve realised that my view can be explained quite simply. The telecom industry is (as far as I can tell) the first to face two classical “dilemmas” simultaneously:
- The Innovator’s Dilemma: The title of Clayton Christensen’s seminal book on disruptive innovation (from which I take a great deal of inspiration, including my company name). It refers to well-managed, profitable companies watching disaster unfold, as they ignore a low-cost / low-profit new technology because it targets only adjacent markets, and would threaten cannibalisation if applied to their own. But it improves over time, gaining strength and scale, and eventually kills them anyway, as it expands from adjacencies to core.
- The Prisoner’s Dilemma: This is a famous thought-experiment applying “game theory” to collaboration and cooperation. Do two prisoners remain silent & complicit – both receiving short sentences – or does one frame the other, going free while the other languishes in jail? Or, if both try to betray each other, they both get long sentences. (Edit: Martin Geddes has pointed out the different game if you change the apostophe to prisoners’ dilemma)
Mike Cohen (DNN) writes,
We would not have thought that only 61 domains in total would be ranking inside the top 1,000,000 most visited sites in the world.
That number was suppose to be exponentially higher by all accounts even a few months in, which we now are well into 2012, however reality says otherwise.
Indeed. DNN???s Alexa numbers are US, not global, but those numbers suck, and not in the way were were hoping. Despite the fact that these sites are indeed indexed by Google, the sticky stampede promised by dot-xxx???s pimps never arrived.
When we are willing to risk being exposed to wild untamed ideas, we turn less to academics, and more to startup companies, passionate writers, activists, etc. And in our youth, many of us are eager for such exposure, to show that we are no longer children who must stay safely in camp ??? we are strong and brave enough to venture into the wild.
But when we get children of our own, and feel less a need to show off our derring-do, we prefer tamed idea sources. We prefer to hire kids who got their ideas from universities, not startups or activists. And most prefer their news to come from similarly tamed journalists. We applaud wild ideas, but prefer them tamed.
But you know what???s really cool? Content so immersive it remakes your mobile device into a rich carousel of beloved memories and breaking news. That???s the Google+ experience we aspire to
Gag me with a spoon.
Finally, another innovation-killing US proposal worth mentioning eludes the understanding of some of the brightest people I have ever met ??? people who have a rigorous knowledge of the Internet and how it works. This is the proposal that would give copyright owners an exclusive right over temporary electronic copies.
While it took me a while, finally the threat arose. It’s not so much that the operators of caches will have to do all the intrusive things that are mentioned, they won’t.
What the rights holders seek here is the ability to tax cache operators (and that is a wider class than just ISPs). Like this: “We know, and you know, there will be some copyright material cached which has not been licensed, and you can either ferret it all out at great expense, or pay us a simple blanket licence to excuse you.”
Collection agencies have been doing this for sometime, so you can’t play a radio in business where the customers can hear it, without paying the vig. You must pay them a cut even if you don’t play copyright music, but any music at all.
The other version of this is “ephemeral rights,” where radio stations buy a record, and for convenience dubs (AKA copy) it to a cartridge for air-play. That’s convenient, that’s value, there’s a right…
Susan uses the example of your heart’s indifference to what it pumps, the vampire at your neck is similarly indifferent, as long as they get their fangs in the vein.
Last year, when Comcast acquired NBC Universal they had to agree to terms as set forth by the Department Of Justice and the FCC regarding how they would treat competitive content delivered over their network. One of the points in that document says that, “Comcast shall not prioritize Defendants??? Video Programming or other content over other Persons??? Video Programming or other content.” While Comcast agreed to these terms and said they would not prioritize their video traffic over someone like Netflix, that’s exactly what they are doing.
Windows Live, the new BlackBerry, Windows Phone, the future of Windows 8.
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Leo Laporte: Windows Live. Re-imagined.
Paul Thurrot: Yeah, Re-imagined as a dead thing.
Yes, but the CON directly below me counteracts this PRO. Maybe we???re starting to rely too heavily on technology aka getting lazy. God gave us hands, so use them. Not to mention, I???ve always thought that people who walk around with hands-free technology and talk to themselves look kind of crazy. The thought of a Blade Runner/Brave New World society also creeps me out.